የሲዳማ ቡና (Arabica Coffee) ወደ ፊት የኣየር ንብረት ለውጥ ተጽዕኖ ሰላባ መሆኑ ስለማይቀር ከኣሁኑ መፍትሄ ካልተፈለገለት በስተቀር ሲዳማ በቡና ኣምራችነቷ መቀጠሏ ያጠራጥራል
የሲዳማ ቡና (Arabica Coffee) ወደ ፊት የኣየር ንብረት ለውጥ ተጽዕኖ ሰላባ መሆኑ ስለማይቀር ከኣሁኑ መፍትሄ ካልተፈለገለት በስተቀር ሲዳማ በቡና ኣምራችነቷ መቀጠሏ ያጠራጥራል
Arabica coffee futures under the weatherArabica coffee futures under the weather
17 Oct, 2013 04:53 AM
THE bulk of the Brazilian coffee harvest is largely complete, meaning investor attention will likely turn to conditions in Colombia, Ethiopia and Honduras, where crops are being planted for a harvesting period in March.
About 55 per cent of the world's Arabica coffee comes from countries where crops start in April and have recently been harvested, according to ETF Securities.
Brazil accounts for 80 per cent of this market, or 45 per cent of global Arabica production.
Close to 90 per cent of Brazilian Arabica is dried naturally in the sun, so excessive rain could hamper production, ETF analyst Nitesh Shah said.
"But with larger plantations having machine-drying capabilities, we believe that adverse weather has less impact on coffee once it has been harvested," Mr Shah said.
The Arabica coffee front-month future price is trading at near five-year lows. Net speculative positioning on the IntercontinentalExchange is short and more than one standard deviation below its five-year average.
Arabica coffee is said to taste better than other commercially grown coffee species due to its lower caffeine content, which is bitter in taste.
The species originated in Ethiopia, where it has been grown for more than 1000 years.
Like most agricultural crops, coffee is a seasonal commodity with different growing times in different regions.
The October group of coffee producers, including Colombia, Ethiopia and Honduras, represent about 43 per cent of the world's Arabica production.
"Production among this group is more fragmented than the Brazil-dominated April group and so weather patterns in any individual country will have a diffused impact on coffee prices," Mr Shah said.
The 2012 to 2013 season, which has now finished, yielded nearly 89 million bags of Arabica coffee from all exporting nations, according to the International Coffee Organisation, which was an 8.4 per cent increase from the previous year.
Arabica prices have collapsed by 36 per cent over the past year, and have more than halved since their peak in 2011.
But the Brazilian real has depreciated in that period, which saw local coffee prices rise by 10 per cent from June to August, compared with a 2 per cent fall in US dollar terms over the same period.
The Brazilian government has absorbed up to 3 million bags of excess supply, or about 6 per cent of the country's annual production, meaning the full extent of excess coffee supply is being masked, Mr Shah said.
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