ICG ኢትዮጵያ ከመለስ በኃላ የሚል analysis አወጣ
The
transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if masked beneath
the constitution, the umbrella of the EPRDF and the prompt elevation
of the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of
government. Given the opacity of the inner workings of the government
and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will look like and
who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any likely outcome suggests a
much weaker government, a more influential security apparatus and
endangered internal stability. The political opposition, largely
forced into exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to
play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an
internationally-brokered process. The weakened Tigrayan elite,
confronted with the nation’ s ethnic and religious cleavages, will
be forced to rely on greater repression if it is to maintain power
and control over other ethnic elites. Ethno-religious divisions and
social unrest are likely to present genuine threats to the state’ s
long-term stability and cohesion.
Read more: Ethiopia After Meles
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