Succeeding Meles Zenawi: the end game
According to political commentators that The Reporter talked to, the spokesperson’s statement made some 14 days ago had managed to reveal too much as to the possible succession plan. Bereket explained at the time that there was no issue regarding the replacement of the long-serving PM and until formally sworn in by the House, the Deputy PM would assume all Prime Ministerial duties. He also noted that there is not going to be a new election or basic change to policies and programs of the government. “The succession process will be completed following the regular constitutional procedures,” he noted. And he also said that the party would proceed with its regular two-year general assembly meeting.
Only a day away from the funeral ceremony of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the world anxiously awaits the finalization of the formal succession process in which Hailemariam Desalegn is said to be a clear favorite. Nevertheless, nothing is final until the House of Peoples’ Representatives approves his appointment.
Yet again, over the course of the past 10-plus days after the passing of the PM, speculation about a possible reservation to accept Hailemariam’s nomination by some members of the party is burgeoning. With the 9th Organizational Congress of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) just around the corner, a number of foreign media outlets predict a power play-off, while pundits argue that the government’s communiqué released on August 21 had already sealed the deal, writesAsrat Seyoum.a
With the mourning of the late PM still fresh in the minds of the public one other issue that is the process of handing over the baton to the next leader seems to be on the top of the agenda. Even before the announcement of the passing away of the PM, various media outlets had entertained the idea of the leadership succession and far too many of these reports predict a possible race within the party should the late PM be unable to continue. And they continued to do so after the passing of the PM became official. The premise of many of these reports is nothing but the ‘presumed’ strong influence that the late Meles Zenawi had on the party politics and the inter-party balance.
Analysts foresee a major disruption in the relative lobbying power of the individual parties once Meles left the picture. And, the shift in equilibrium can give rise to a political deadlock making it difficult to agree on a single nominee for the top job in the country.
Besides, the second man in the party (Hailemariam) went through hard scrutiny by the international media. Valuing the close working experience he had with the PM, some analysts gave him the benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile, many others said that Meles had left big shoes to fill and Hailemariam’s stack of experience in politics might not be enough. However, many others still say that the party could still change its mind and the general assembly meeting around the corner could come up with other alternatives. In contrast to these notions stands the press briefing conducted on the morning of August 21, right after the announcement of the passing away of the Meles Zenawi. The head of Government Communications Affairs Office, Bereket Simon, told journalists that Hailemariam will be sworn in as the new PM by the House.
What Bereket had said
According to political commentators that The Reporter talked to, the spokesperson’s statement made some 14 days ago had managed to reveal too much as to the possible succession plan. Bereket explained at the time that there was no issue regarding the replacement of the long-serving PM and until formally sworn in by the House, the Deputy PM would assume all Prime Ministerial duties. He also noted that there is not going to be a new election or basic change to policies and programs of the government. “The succession process will be completed following the regular constitutional procedures,” he noted. And he also said that the party would proceed with its regular two-year general assembly meeting.
The Council of Ministers’ statement officially empowered Hailemariam with the position of acting as PM as well, but did not make any comments about him assuming the full-fledged premiership. On party level, the forthcoming meeting is expected by many to elect a new chairman to replace Meles Zenawi both for TPLF and the EPRDF. And, the trend so far is that the chairman of EPRDF, which has a 99.6 percent majority in the House, will assume the premiership. The four-party EPRDF has thirty-six executive committee members, each party contributing nine. As it stands at the moment, TPLF has eight executive committee members, hence both at TPLF level and then at EPRDF level there remains a gap to be filled.
According to analysts, there are different scenarios that could transpire in the coming meeting. The first is Hailemariam assuming the chairmanship of the party and the PM post by extension until the next national election. On the other hand, the party could decide to elect a new party chairman who according to the trend, will go for the premiership. Hence, they say it all seems to be open for the upcoming EPRDF Organizational Congress. So, why was it officially stated that the acting PM would be sworn in as PM when the House convenes?
Possible implication of the statement
As it remains, there seems to be a lot riding on the next party meeting with regard to the issue of who is going to succeed Meles. Although Bereket noted the fact that what would happen at the party meeting is not to be predicted now, he strongly assured the public that the acting PM would continue on the job until the upcoming national elections.
Elias Fikru (not his real name), a commentator that The Reporter interviewed, said that it could be for two reasons. The first possibility is that it could be a mere slip of the tongue out of a sheer desire to reassure the public on an orderly transition of leadership, he explains. “It is understandable that following the death of the PM the need for assurance of calm and on orderly transition was very important not only for the local populace but also for foreign stakeholders,” he elaborates.
On the other side, the statement could also mean that regardless of the upcoming meeting, the nomination of Hailemariam to shoulder the responsibility of the late PM is an issue agreed upon at a prior time. Here one should note that Bereket’s statement bypasses the question agreement on the nominee within the party structure and hence in House, since the party is a clear majority, and skips right into the swearing in ceremony, Elias argues. “For me it indicates that the party has given the nod to Hailemairiam”. He also says that if the second scenario is true, it dismisses speculations about possible leadership wrangle in the party thereby constituting solid political score. “It also has an immense meaning in the building of the credibility of the party for the future,” he explained.
The damage has been done
It seems that the public has capitalized on the announcement made on August 21. And as far as the non-partisans are concerned, Hailemariam has almost stepped one foot into the PM’s office. The symbolic nature of the appointment of Hailemariam, who is the chairman of Southern Ethiopia Peoples’ Democratic Movement (SEPDM), is also another factor that weighs in his favor. Historically, power is said to be concentrated in the north and the desire to change this condition is also one of the attributes that the late PM Meles is accredited for. Better yet, Hailemariam is also part of new generation of EPRDF leaders who quickly climbed to the leadership ladder pursuant to the party’s succession plan.
On the flip side, President Barak Obama had made a phone call late last week to Hailemariam Desalegn. According to some, the call amounted to recognizing Hailemariam as a prospective leader. And it means that before the decisive party meeting, the man who will stand in for the PM’s post representing the EPRDF is already known, observers opine.
Nevertheless, there are still patches of speculation and rumors as to what the upcoming party meeting could bring to the forefront. It is to be granted that there are positions like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Deputy PM waiting to be filled by high-ranking party officials. But in so far as the premiership is concerned, expectation are high that Hailemariam would assume the post.
I this regard, commentators say, the statement made last Tuesday had more or less sealed the deal. Should the party go for a new candidate to fill Meles’s position, it would come across as nothing but intra/inter party leadership race, they argue. Rumors of any reservation to get behind Hailemariam, however reasonable they may be, could be interpreted as fracture, they explain. Outcomes different from what have already been announced earlier by the spokesperson could easily be viewed as rough transition process. And the party owes it to itself to discredit all the speculation and second-guessing that is going on at the moment by unanimously backing Hailemariam. After all, the damage has already been done, they conclude.
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